Pakistan Power Sector 2026: Capacity, Generation, Circular Debt & Key Trends
The latest official figures from the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, NEPRA's State of Industry Report 2025 and the Power Division, in one place.
Installed capacity mix (March 2026)
| Source | MW | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Thermal (RLNG, coal, gas, RFO) | 24,405 | 49.2% |
| Hydel | 11,615 | 23.4% |
| Renewable (wind, solar, bagasse) | 10,101 | 20.3% |
| of which rooftop net metering | 7,319 | 14.7% |
| Nuclear | 3,530 | 7.1% |
| Total | 49,651 | 100% |
Generation mix (Jul–Mar FY2026)
| Source | GWh (Jul–Mar FY26) | FY26 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermal | 43,581 | 46.9% | 46.2% |
| Hydel | 27,961 | 30.1% | 31.5% |
| Nuclear | 17,133 | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| Renewable (grid) | 4,160 | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Total | 92,835 | 100% |
53.1% of generation came from clean sources (hydel, nuclear and renewables). Rooftop solar output is mostly self-consumed, so it isn't counted as grid generation.
Power sector circular debt (Rs billion, end-June)
The fall of about Rs 750–780 billion in FY2025 came mainly from refinancing, not reform. The government arranged a Rs 1.225 trillion, six-year bank facility at KIBOR minus 0.9% to retire Power Holding Ltd's costlier loans (about Rs 659 billion) and clear overdue payments to IPPs. NEPRA called these "temporary financial measures rather than lasting reforms". In FY2026 the debt rose again by Rs 34 billion, mostly because of unpaid K-Electric dues tied to a tariff dispute in court. Together with gas sector arrears of Rs 3,631 billion, total energy-sector circular debt is about Rs 5.3 trillion.
Why bills stay high: distribution losses and recovery (FY2024-25)
Pakistan has about twice the installed capacity of its peak demand (49.7 GW vs 24.7 GW). Because IPP contracts pay for capacity whether or not plants run, low utilisation pushes up the per-unit cost for every consumer. Losses and unpaid bills beyond NEPRA's targets add hundreds of billions more, which end up as circular debt or surcharges.
Key changes in 2026
- Rooftop solar boom: net-metered capacity rose from 2,813 MW (March 2025) to 7,319 MW (March 2026), about 4.5 GW in nine months, plus large off-grid and hybrid installations outside the grid.
- Net metering replaced by net billing: NEPRA's Prosumer Regulations 2026 (9 February 2026). New prosumers export at about Rs 10–11 per unit. See net metering vs hybrid.
- Uniform tariff rebased: new residential slab rates under S.R.O. 279(I)/2026, from Rs 22.44 to Rs 47.20 per unit. See the 2026 unit price table.
- IPP contracts: 13 IPPs totalling 5,105 MW have been closed or had their contracts terminated as part of tariff renegotiation.
- Targeted subsidy: slab-based electricity subsidies are due to move to a BISP-linked targeted subsidy from January 2027.
- Monthly FCA: Rs 1.1086/unit in October 2026 bills; Rs 2.56/unit requested for November. See the FCA calculator.
- Gas: consumer gas tariffs were kept unchanged for 2026-27 while gas circular debt rose to Rs 3.6 trillion. See the gas bill calculator.
Year-on-year snapshot
| Indicator | Previous | Latest |
|---|---|---|
| Installed capacity | 45,782 MW (Mar 2025) | 49,651 MW (Mar 2026) |
| Net-metered rooftop solar | 2,813 MW | 7,319 MW |
| Power circular debt | Rs 1,641 bn (Jun 2025) | Rs 1,675 bn (Jun 2026) |
| Gas circular debt | Rs 3,288 bn (Jun 2025) | Rs 3,631 bn (Jun 2026) |
| Hydel share of generation | 31.5% (FY25) | 30.1% (Jul–Mar FY26) |
| Nuclear share of generation | 17.7% (FY25) | 18.5% (Jul–Mar FY26) |
Sources: Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, Chapter 14 (Energy), Tables 14.1–14.3; NEPRA State of Industry Report 2025 (as reported by Profit, 16 Jan 2026, and Pakera, 17 Oct 2026); Power Division data reported by Profit (20 Oct 2026) and The Nation (19 Aug 2026). Full-year FY2026 generation and DISCO loss figures will be added when NEPRA publishes its 2026 report. Power Division figures are used for circular debt; NEPRA reports Rs 1,614 bn for June 2025. NEPRA also counts 41,121 MW of installed capacity at 30 June 2025 on its own basis, while the Economic Survey reports a higher figure that includes net metering.