Pakistan Power Sector: FY24-25 Macro Analysis & Data
Evaluating generation metrics, structural inefficiencies, and the clean energy transition.
Generation Mix (FY24) (in terms of Energy Generated)
Circular Debt Growth (Billion PKR)
Capacity vs. Evacuation Constraints
Pakistan operates with a nominal installed capacity of 46,200 MW against a peak system demand that contracted to 27.4 GW in FY24. This surplus is negated by severe transmission limitations. Overloaded 500 kV transmission corridors frequently obstruct power evacuation from cost-efficient southern plants to northern load centers. Consequently, the system operator is compelled to curtail economical baseload generation (nuclear, local coal, and wind) in favor of dispatching costlier RLNG and RFO plants localized in the north to stabilize the grid.
| Energy Source | Installed Capacity (GW) | Generation (TWh) | % Share of Mix(Energy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydel | 10.6 | 39.9 | 29.0% |
| RLNG | 6.0 | 30.7 | 22.3% |
| Nuclear | 3.6 | 23.2 | 16.9% |
| Coal (Local/Imported) | 7.3 | 20.5 | 15.0% |
| Natural Gas | 10.5 | 12.7 | 9.2% |
| Renewables (Wind/Solar/Bagasse) | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.0% |
System Inefficiencies & Circular Debt
The macroeconomic stability of the sector is heavily compromised by distribution flaws. T&D losses exceeded regulatory caps by 6.5 percentage points, adding PKR 276 Billion directly to the circular debt. Concurrently, a 6% nationwide collection shortfall inflicted a further financial deficit of PKR 312 Billion. In total, the circular debt expanded to PKR 2.39 Trillion, consuming the equivalent of 24% of national tax revenue. Capacity Purchase Price (CPP) escalated by 46% YoY to PKR 1.9 Trillion, driven predominantly by underutilized thermal and nuclear infrastructures.
The Distributed Solar Shift
As grid tariffs escalate, the industrial and domestic sectors are pivoting rapidly toward decentralized generation. FY24 witnessed an unprecedented influx of 16 GW in solar panel imports, representing a 227% YoY surge. Net-metering capacity alone skyrocketed to 4.9 GW by the first nine months of FY25. This transition is directly correlated with an 11% contraction in industrial grid electricity sales, signifying a structural alteration in Pakistan's energy demand profile.